Climate Change Increased Likelihood of Devastating LA Wildfires, Study Confirms
A new scientific study has confirmed that climate change played a significant role in creating the hot, dry conditions that fueled the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles earlier this year. The research, conducted by World Weather Attribution (WWA), a globally recognized group specializing in linking extreme weather events to climate change, found that global warming made the dangerous fire-prone conditions about 35% more likely.
Key Findings of the Study
The study, led by Dr. Clair Barnes from Imperial College London, highlights that climate change is extending LA’s wildfire season and reducing the rainfall needed to suppress fires. While wildfires are complex events influenced by multiple factors, the researchers are confident that a warming climate is making the region more susceptible to intense fire outbreaks.
“Climate change increased the risk of the devastating LA wildfires,” said Dr. Barnes. “Drought conditions are more frequently pushing into winter, increasing the chance a fire will break out during strong Santa Ana winds that can turn small ignitions into deadly infernos.”
The Santa Ana winds, strong and gusty easterly or north-easterly winds that blow from inland California toward the coast, played a critical role in spreading the fires. The blazes, which broke out in early January, claimed around 30 lives and destroyed more than 10,000 homes.
How Climate Change Influences Wildfires
The WWA team used climate models and statistical methods to analyze how global warming has impacted extreme weather events like heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires. Since the industrial revolution, the burning of coal, oil, and gas has released billions of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, driving global temperatures up by approximately 1.2°C.
The study found that the hot, dry conditions responsible for the LA fires are now expected to occur once every 17 years—a 35% increase in likelihood compared to a world without human-induced warming.
“We actually see that the models show very much the same results that the [real-world] observations have,” said Dr. Friederike Otto, head of World Weather Attribution. “We are quite confident about the result… we can attribute that, also quantitatively.”
Longer Fire Seasons and Drought
The researchers also examined other critical factors contributing to wildfires, such as the length of the fire season and drought conditions. They found that the wildfire season in LA has extended by about 23 days since the mid-19th century, when global warming began. This extension increases the overlap between dry conditions and Santa Ana winds, creating a perfect storm for fire outbreaks.
Additionally, drought conditions in the LA area from October to December are now 2.4 times more likely than before the widespread use of fossil fuels.
Uncertainties and Broader Implications
While the study confidently links climate change to the hot, dry conditions that fueled the fires, the researchers were more cautious about connecting rising temperatures to the longer fire season or reduced rainfall. They noted that climate models did not show a significant link in these areas.
Despite these uncertainties, the study concludes that global warming has increased the likelihood of devastating wildfires in LA. As fossil fuel consumption continues, the risk of such events will only grow.
“Overall, the paper finds that climate change has made the Los Angeles fires more likely despite some statistical uncertainty,” said Prof. Gabi Hegerl from the University of Edinburgh, who was not involved in the study. “This is a carefully researched result that should be taken seriously.”
Climate Whiplash and Future Risks
The study builds on earlier research published during the fires, which linked the wildfires to “climate whiplash”—a phenomenon where very wet years are followed by extremely dry ones. In LA, two wet winters were followed by an exceptionally dry autumn and winter this year. The wet weather promoted the growth of grass and shrubs, which later became fuel for the fires that spread rapidly due to the Santa Ana winds.
As climate change continues to alter weather patterns, the risk of such devastating wildfires is expected to rise, underscoring the urgent need for climate action and improved wildfire management strategies.