Vice President Kamala Harris has a unique advantage in her campaign — she isn’t Joe Biden or Donald Trump.
Before President Biden announced on July 21 that he wouldn’t seek reelection, there was a clear lack of enthusiasm among voters for another face-off between these two candidates, both of whom were born before the television era. Many Americans were eager for an alternative, with less concern about party lines.
As a result, factors like Biden’s unexpected decision, the appeal of change, Trump’s difficulty in adapting to the new dynamic, swift unification among Democrats, strong media support, and the potential to reignite Obama’s 2008 coalition — filled with his message of hope and positivity — created significant political momentum for Harris. This momentum could potentially propel her to victory on November 5.
Based on current national and battleground state polling trends, Harris could narrowly win, meaning Trump could be on the losing side.
However, Trump is known for refusing to accept defeat. If he does lose, a repeat of the 2020 post-election scenario is likely, with plenty of accusations, claims of a stolen election, cheating, judicial bias, illegal voters, foreign meddling, and manipulated voting machines, all leading to potential legal battles that could reach the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, adversaries of the U.S. would be closely monitoring for signs of electoral instability, democratic turmoil, and perhaps even a national security crisis.
Regardless, a Trump loss would likely trigger a significant internal conflict within the Republican Party. A “civil war” seems inevitable between the dominant Trump faction and those who want to move beyond the Trump era and aim for a victory in the 2028 presidential race without any Trump family members on the ticket.
Like all internal battles, this one could be fierce, as many in the GOP view Trumpism as a political dead-end with a shrinking voter base. I publicly left the Republican Party in January 2021 because of the toxic influence of Trump’s brand. Today, identifying as a Republican isn’t about upholding conservative principles but rather showing unwavering loyalty to Trump, with his MAGA supporters dominating the party from top to bottom.
In 2016, the “Trumplican Party” emerged (some might say “was hijacked”). After Trump’s unexpected victory, Republican leaders and activists who initially supported other candidates were either pushed out, resigned in protest, or capitulated to his leadership.
Following Trump’s defeat in 2020, Republicans who refused to acknowledge his claim of victory were seen as disloyal. The same applied to those who didn’t defend or justify his actions on January 6 or his ongoing legal issues, as well as those who supported any alternative candidate for 2024.
Having one family exert such complete control over a major national political party is unprecedented in the U.S. In March, Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, was appointed co-chair of the Republican National Committee. In February, she candidly stated the RNC’s fundraising focus: “Every single penny will go to the number one and only job of the RNC — that is electing Donald J. Trump as president of the United States…”
Naturally, many down-ballot candidates, officeholders, and lower-level party officials were less than thrilled by Lara Trump’s candid admission about the family’s overarching mission. It brought into stark relief the reality that the Republican Party, under Trump’s leadership, has become less about broader conservative principles and more about a singular focus on one man and his family.
If Vice President Kamala Harris defeats Donald Trump in the upcoming election, it raises a significant question: would Trump step down as the leader of the Republican Party? The answer is probably not. Trump, unlike Joe Biden, is unlikely to be gently pushed aside. Biden never positioned himself as the singular representation of the Democratic Party. Trump and his family, on the other hand, have come to embody the Republican Party in its current form. Thus, moving beyond the Trump era without a family member on the ticket would require a monumental shift within the party, something akin to a tectonic change.
This raises another crucial question: who would lead the Republican Party through the uncertain terrain of a future that does not center on MAGA and Trumpism? It is unlikely to be Senator JD Vance of Ohio, who in this scenario would be another casualty of the Trump era, his political aspirations tied too closely to a leader who has lost his grip on power.
So, who might step up? Some of the names being floated are familiar and obvious. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida are all potential candidates. Each of them likely harbors ambitions of being a future president and would see themselves as capable of steering the party in a new direction. There’s also Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who, despite his contentious history with Trump, is a popular figure in the party. Each of these leaders has had their battles with Trump, a shared experience that might embolden them to chart a new path for the party. Whether one of them takes the helm or a new leader emerges remains to be seen.
As the party looks towards a post-Trump era, it will need fresh faces and rising stars to counterbalance entrenched MAGA warriors like Representatives Matt Gaetz of Florida and Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia. One potential figure who could fill this void is a real warrior: Lt. Colonel Adam Kinzinger, a former Illinois congressman who served from 2011 to 2023 and a pilot who flew missions in Afghanistan and Iraq.
After the 2020 election, then-Representative Kinzinger broke ranks with Trump and the mainstream of the Republican Party by rejecting the false claims of a stolen election. He was appalled by the events of January 6, 2021, and was one of the few Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. Kinzinger went on to serve on the House Select Committee to investigate the attack on the Capitol, making him a target for Trump’s ire. Faced with the prospect of a challenging reelection campaign, Kinzinger chose not to run in 2022.
Then, on August 15, during a primetime speech to over 20 million viewers at the Democratic National Convention, Kinzinger took a bold stand against Trump, calling him out in stark terms: “Donald Trump is a weak man pretending to be strong; he is a small man pretending to be big. He’s a faithless man pretending to be righteous. He’s a perpetrator who can’t stop playing the victim.” His words resonated deeply with former Republicans like myself, who long for a party we can return to — one that stands on principles rather than personalities.
Kinzinger’s speech was a daring move, saying aloud what many in the Republican Party, including some elected officials, only think in private: “The Republican Party is no longer conservative. It has switched its allegiance from the principles that gave it purpose to a man whose only purpose is himself.”
Surprisingly, Fox News chose to cut away from Kinzinger’s speech, perhaps seeking to shield their audience from a harsh truth. However, if Trump loses, these viewers and voters must confront reality. The truth is essential to freeing the Republican Party from Trump’s hold. But before this can happen, the party must brace itself for an internal battle — a war for its future.
Myra Adams is an opinion writer with experience serving on the creative team of two Republican presidential campaigns, in 2004 and 2008. Her insights reflect a deep understanding of the challenges and dynamics within the Republican Party today.