Although Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party was unexpectedly denied an absolute majority in parliament during the world’s largest democratic election, India’s election is unlikely to have an impact on the stability or course of his third term in office.
The main cause is that the BJP, which is in power, ran for office in coalition with a number of smaller political parties, and as a result, the coalition was able to secure a majority of seats in the lower chamber of parliament.
Nevertheless, Modi’s political status has been damaged by the BJP losing its strong majority in the lower house, which also dented his aura of invincibility. An overconfident Modi had declared even before the campaign officially began that the BJP would capture more than two-thirds of the seats in the lower house after stacking political victory after political victory.
However, Modi’s foreign policy and national agenda are unlikely to be directly impacted by the BJP’s inability to secure a simple majority on its own. Modi’s allies are provincial organizations devoid of any sense of national purpose or direction.
It’s also unclear whether the divided opposition will remain united after coming together to defeat Modi’s electoral juggernaut because they don’t have a single leader or shared agenda. In actuality, the opposition coalition’s total number of seats gained by the various parties is marginally fewer than the BJP’s total.
Despite a strong anti-incumbency mood in Indian culture, Prime Minister Modi, 73, is about to begin his second decade in office. Decades ago, only one other Indian leader—Jawaharlal Nehru—was able to win a third term.
India has had rapid military modernization, strong economic growth, and political stability under Modi’s leadership. India is becoming more well-known internationally and carrying more geopolitical weight, in part because the end of China’s economic boom has highlighted the rise of Asia’s second demographic behemoth as a major player in both politics and the economy. At the moment, India’s major economy is the fastest-growing in the world.
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Following the results of the election, Modi said that a “new chapter of big decisions” would accompany his third term. However, major decisions frequently serve to exacerbate polarization and division in India due to the country’s contentious politics, particularly when they contradict deeply held beliefs. For instance, during his second term, Modi was forced to reverse agriculture reform measures following a year of popular demonstrations supported by the opposition.
Modi is trying to turn India into a global manufacturing hub at a time when Western corporations are interested in moving output away from China with his pro-growth and pro-market agenda. As a result, increased government spending on infrastructure, manufacturing, and human capital—especially education and training—is expected during his next term.
The nation’s foreign policy issues, chief among them the military stalemate with China that has already reached its fifth year, will need to be immediately taken into account by the incoming administration. Although the intense standoff resulting from covert Chinese incursions into certain Indian border regions may not be making headlines throughout the world, China continues to ramp up its force deployments along the Himalayan frontier, acting as though it is gearing up for war. China reportedly stationed its most sophisticated J-20 stealth fighter aircraft close to the border with India.
The most significant foreign policy issues facing India are related to its unstable neighbors, particularly the growing strategic alliance between China and Pakistan, both of which have nuclear weapons and stake claims to large portions of Indian territory. After the United States and China, India is currently the third-largest defense spender in the world.
Fundamentally, Modi has contributed to the development of a realistic foreign policy outlook. Free of ideology, Indian foreign policy has aimed to restore the nation’s military and economic stability without explicitly selecting one power as a dominating ally over another.
But in reality, even with certain new snags in the bilateral relationship—such as the involvement of Sikh extremists with bases in Canada and the United States—closer cooperation with the United States has remained Modi’s flagship foreign policy goal.
India is leaning toward the West, but it is still reluctant to forge a formal military alliance with the West. The fact that President Joe Biden is reluctant to comment on the Sino-Indian military stalemate or to take a statement in support of New Delhi serves as a reminder to India that it is responsible for defending itself.
India will probably continue to handle international issues independently since New Delhi supports friendship without reliance. In the ongoing shift from the American-led post-World War II order to a new global order whose exact contours are still unknown, this places India as the world’s preeminent “swing state.”
Instead of adhering to the Cold War-style “us versus them” strategy, the United States needs to be somewhat flexible in forming partnerships in order to compete with China, its only rival on the international stage. India is too big to be treated by America like another Japan or Britain. However, India, which has engaged in combat with the Chinese military more than any other country this century, is essential to any anti-China alliance in order for it to have any geopolitical significance.
India’s vastness and variety do, indeed, present many difficulties. It is currently the most populated country in the world and is highly diverse in terms of both population and culture.
Nevertheless, as the most recent election makes clear, India’s democratic system is a source of strength, stability, and inclusivity. Historically marginalized classes and castes have been able to gradually attain prominence in politics and bureaucracy because to the Indian democratic system, which empowers people at the grassroots level through participatory processes and open communication. Modi’s own lowly origins serve as an example of this.
India is a major participant in the globe now, and Modi’s third term will probably be devoted to allowing India to take center stage. India’s rapid ascent will help the United States achieve its objectives in the Indo-Pacific region, which is becoming the world’s new center of economic and geopolitical activity, as well as raise India’s profile in the global balance of power.