Investors are uneasy about the possibility of a shift in France’s power dynamics, with banks, utilities, and highway operators among the equities most at risk.
Slowed down by the possibility of tax increases, increased borrowing costs, and perhaps nationalizations, those industries have led a $240 billion sell-off on the Paris Stock Exchange since President Emmanuel Macron convened an emergency parliamentary session on June 9. During that period, a UBS Group AG index that tracks equities exposed to election risks has fallen 9%.
And with surveys showing Macron’s party and its partners behind the left-wing New Popular Front and far-right politician Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, investors have a lot on their minds before the two-round vote, the results of which will be revealed on July 7.
Macron will continue to lead, but his pro-business agenda would be hampered if he lost control of the parliament. Already, shares in toll-road operators Vinci SA and Eiffage SA have been negatively impacted by the prospect of highway nationalization, which was raised by Le Pen before to the 2022 election. The far right has doubts about renewable energy and electric vehicles, while the leftist coalition has proposed raising taxes on wealth, dividends, and share buybacks.
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“Very few, if any, industries or stocks will profit from this environment,” Groupe Richelieu’s chief investment officer Alexandre Hezez stated. “Sector at-risk factors include high debt levels, substantial exposure to France and the EU, and high beta related to political risk.”
The following are the main equities and industries that the election may have the biggest effects on:
- Banks are increasingly concerned about populist spending measures that could raise borrowing costs. This anxiety is reflected in the over 10% drop in shares of France’s three largest banks—Societe Generale SA, Credit Agricole SA, and BNP Paribas SA—since the election was announced, a sharper decline than their European counterparts have experienced. Banks are particularly susceptible to the “sovereign-bank loop,” where they incur losses through holdings of sovereign debt and are indirectly affected by new spending measures. Additionally, they face challenges from sluggish growth and decreasing loan volumes. The leftist coalition aims to increase banks’ mandatory capital buffers and raise transaction taxes. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist Lilia Peytavin noted that banks, due to their significant debt holdings, would likely be hit hardest by rising credit costs or a sharp increase in borrowing. Investors are also concerned about potential windfall or capital gain taxes on dividends. AXA Investment Managers has reduced its exposure to French banks, with portfolio manager Gilles Guibout suggesting that higher bond yield premiums are becoming a lasting trend. The selloff has collectively erased €16.2 billion ($17.3 billion) from the market value of Societe Generale, Credit Agricole, and BNP Paribas. Notably, BNP Paribas is the least reliant on France for its revenue.
- Transport & Infrastructure Uncertainty looms over toll-road operators. Even if nationalization, favored by the far-right, doesn’t occur, the new government might cap prices, raise taxes, or terminate concessions early. Shares in infrastructure and transport companies Eiffage, Aeroports de Paris SA, Bouygues SA, Getlink SE, and Vinci have dropped by up to 12% in the past two weeks, as they generate up to 70% of their revenue from France, according to Bloomberg data. Construction firms could also be affected by potential subsidy rollbacks and changes in energy efficiency policies, Morgan Stanley strategists noted.
- Energy & Utilities Rising borrowing costs pose a significant challenge for green energy firms, which are already struggling with high interest rates. These companies, along with other energy utilities, may also face increased taxes and a reduction in green financing. The far-right aims to reform or opt out of European electricity pricing rules and holds a skeptical view of renewables, particularly wind power. Investors will be closely watching for any changes to France’s low-carbon agenda and the role of biofuels. Additionally, the left-wing coalition plans to gradually transfer water management control to local authorities. Green energy firm Engie SA has seen an 8% drop since the snap-election call, while water and energy management company Veolia Environnement SA has fallen by about 7%. CIC Market Solutions analyst Arnaud Palliez has removed Engie from his list of top picks, predicting it could suffer from reduced investment in energy infrastructure and potential government moves to cut its 24% stake. Barclays Plc analyst Lydia Rainforth, however, downplays risks to integrated energy stocks like TotalEnergies SE. While acknowledging potential risks such as buyback taxes, Rainforth believes the investment case for TotalEnergies will remain strong, regardless of the election outcome in France.
- Luxury & Autos. A Le Pen majority could derail France’s electric vehicle transition, as her party opposes the ban on new combustion engine vehicles by 2035. Renault SA shares have lagged behind the CAC 40 Index this month. Morgan Stanley analysts highlighted the risk of the government, which holds a 15% stake, pushing to keep production in France. Renault is also exposed to a broader consumer slowdown, with nearly a third of its sales in its home market, according to Bloomberg data. Auto parts suppliers Forvia SE and Valeo SE could be affected by weakened consumer demand, with their shares down 13% and 7%, respectively, since the election call. “Despite low valuations, we would treat any fresh policy uncertainty as a negative event for the sector,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Ross MacDonald. Luxury goods firms like LVMH, Hermes International SCA, and Gucci owner Kering SA are less affected, as less than 10% of their sales are from France. However, a new government could adopt a stricter tariff stance, potentially sparking a trade dispute with China, the world’s largest luxury market.
- Media & Defense.Television Francaise 1 SA and Metropole Television SA shares have dropped after a National Rally member suggested privatizing the state TV and radio group. This would force public channels and stations to compete for a limited advertising revenue pool. France’s defense budget appears relatively secure, with Jordan Bardella, a potential prime minister, easing concerns about his party’s stance on Ukraine. However, past scrutiny of Le Pen’s party’s financial ties to Russia has caused shares of defense and aerospace firm Thales SA and aircraft supplier Safran SA to decline.