The Fingerprints on Chile’s Fires and California Floods: El Niño and Warming
Two regions known for their mild climates are facing deadly disasters: Chile is grappling with wildfires that have claimed over 120 lives, while Southern California is experiencing record-breaking rains leading to river swelling and mudslides.
The underlying causes of these disasters stem from two potent forces: climate change and the natural weather phenomenon called El Niño. Climate change can exacerbate both drought and heavy rainfall, while El Niño can amplify extreme weather events.
In California, meteorologists had been predicting the arrival of an unusually potent storm, fueled by abnormally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This storm, known as an atmospheric river, unleashed heavy rains over the weekend, prompting several counties to declare a state of emergency. By Monday, authorities warned of the possibility of Los Angeles experiencing a year’s worth of rainfall in just one day.
Meanwhile, Chile has been grappling with a prolonged drought for nearly a decade, setting the stage for a catastrophic weekend. Amidst a severe heatwave, wildfires erupted, causing widespread devastation. The president has declared two days of national mourning and cautioned that the death toll from the fires could rise significantly.
Both the floods and the fires reflect the extreme weather risks brought on by a dangerous cocktail of global warming, which is principally caused by the burning of fossil fuels, and this year’s El Niño, a cyclical weather phenomenon characterized by an overheated Pacific Ocean near the Equator.
The disasters in Chile and California come after the hottest year globally, both on land and in the oceans. This year is shaping up to be one of the top five hottest years on record, as per the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
John Abatzoglou, a climate scientist at the University of California, Merced, emphasized that these simultaneous fires and floods in Chile and California highlight the extreme weather events and their impacts, even in typically moderate Mediterranean climates. He noted that climate variables, combined with the effects of El Niño, play significant roles in shaping individual extreme events. He also stressed that the influence of climate change is becoming increasingly prominent over time.
In California, the unusually warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have amplified the intensity of atmospheric river storms, which began on Saturday and are projected to persist for another day. Some areas in the Santa Monica Mountains received more than seven inches of rainfall over the weekend, leading to mudslides in affluent neighborhoods of Los Angeles.
In parts of the region, up to 14 inches of rain could fall on Monday, which is close to the average annual rainfall. City and state officials are advising people to avoid traveling on the roads. The heaviest rains are expected to occur around the time of the evening commute.